Low-altitude economy, as a strategic emerging industry, has rapidly developed in China in recent years and has gradually become a new engine for economic development. In the future, the development trend of low-altitude economy can be analyzed in detail from the following aspects:
With the continuous improvement of technology and continuous policy support, the low-altitude economy industry will continue to expand new application scenarios, and the areas involved will be more extensive. The development of technologies such as drones and general aviation will further promote the development of the low-altitude economy. For example, as the leading industry of the low-altitude economy, the application areas of the drone industry are constantly expanding, including logistics, urban tourism, emergency rescue, and agriculture and forestry plant protection.
According to predictions, the market size of China’s low-altitude economy will reach 3.7 trillion yuan by 2028. and the market size is expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan by 2035. By 2023. the market size of China’s low-altitude economy has exceeded 505.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%, and it is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026.
The drone industry will become the leading industry of the low-altitude economy. Drones not only have broad prospects in logistics, emergency rescue, and other fields, but also have huge application potential in urban management, power inspection, and land surveying. The rapid development and extensive application of the drone industry will promote the development of the entire low-altitude economy.
The application scenarios of the low-altitude economy will become more diversified. In addition to traditional logistics and rescue fields, drones have broad application prospects in many fields such as agriculture, power, surveying, and film and television shooting. For example, the application of drones in agriculture can achieve precise fertilization and pest control, improving agricultural production efficiency.
The support of national policies and the formulation of planning provide strong guarantees for the development of the low-altitude economy. For example, the “National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline” proposed the development of the low-altitude economy for the first time and formulated detailed planning and goals. In addition, local governments are also actively promoting the development of the low-altitude economy, such as the “Implementation Plan for Promoting the High-quality Development of the Low-altitude Economy in Foshan City (2024-2026)” issued by Foshan City.
Although the low-altitude economy has broad prospects, it also faces some challenges. For example, the safety, airworthiness standards, and regulatory policies of drones still need to be further improved. In addition, the development of the low-altitude economy also needs to solve bottleneck problems in technology, funds, and talents.
The low-altitude economy will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend in the next few years, and technological progress and policy support will be its main driving forces. The drone industry will become the leading industry, the application scenarios will become more diversified, and the market size will continue to expand. However, the development of the low-altitude economy also faces some challenges and needs to be further improved in technology, policy, and regulation.
I. Development trends and market size predictions of low-altitude economy globally
The development trends and market size predictions of the low-altitude economy globally are as follows:
1. Development trends of the global low-altitude economy:
The global low-altitude economy is currently in the early stages of cultivation, but it has enormous potential for development. As ground traffic congestion worsens and drone technology matures, countries are actively exploring the cultivation of the low-altitude economy industry.
As a new type of industry that deeply integrates aviation and the economy and society, the low-altitude economy has attracted widespread attention worldwide. With the rapid development of drone technology, the popularization of general aviation, and the exploration of urban air traffic, the low-altitude economy industry has shown huge market potential and broad development prospects.
2. Market size predictions of the global low-altitude economy:
The global low-altitude economy market size exceeded 10 billion US dollars in 2022.
Roland Berger predicts that by 2050. the market size of the global low-altitude economy will exceed 60 trillion yuan.
According to calculations by CCID Consulting, the market size of China’s low-altitude economy has reached 505.95 billion yuan in 2023. with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.8%. It is expected to exceed one trillion yuan by 2026. reaching 1.064 trillion yuan.
The report by Forward Industry Research Institute shows that the market size of the global low-altitude economy was approximately 10 trillion yuan in 2023.
II. Application scenarios of the drone industry in China and other countries
The application scenarios of the drone industry in China and other countries are very extensive, covering multiple fields and specific cases.
1. In China, the application scenarios of drones mainly include the following aspects:
- Agriculture and forestry plant protection: The application of drones in agriculture mainly includes crop detection, seeding, and pesticide spraying, greatly improving the efficiency and safety of agricultural production.
- Power inspection: Drones are used for power line inspection, which can quickly discover and handle problems in power facilities to ensure power supply stability.
- Oil and gas pipeline inspection: Drones also play an important role in oil and gas pipeline inspection, and can quickly detect pipeline leaks and ensure energy security.
- Law enforcement: Drones are used for monitoring and patrol in law enforcement, improving law enforcement efficiency and safety.
- Geological and meteorological exploration: Drones are widely used in geological exploration and meteorological monitoring, and can quickly obtain terrain and weather data.
- Film and television aerial photography: Drones are used for aerial photography in film and television production, providing more shooting angles and perspectives.
- Forest fire prevention: Drones are used for monitoring fires in forest fire prevention, quickly discovering and handling fires.
- Express delivery: Drones are used for delivery in express delivery, such as in a park in Shenzhen where drone delivery cabinets can quickly deliver food to consumers.
- Emergency rescue: Drones are used for disaster monitoring and material delivery in emergency rescue, improving rescue efficiency.
- Aviation surveying and mapping: Drones are used for terrain measurement and map production in aviation surveying and mapping, improving surveying accuracy and efficiency.
2. In other countries or regions, the application scenarios of drones are also quite extensive, mainly including:
- Industrial use: Drones are mainly used for power cruising, aerial surveying and modeling, and high-altitude equipment quality inspection in industrial use.
- Consumer-level applications: With the development of technology, consumer-level drones are gradually popularizing in entertainment, photography, and other fields, with huge market potential.
III. The main technological challenges faced by China’s low-altitude economy and solutions
The main technological challenges faced by China’s low-altitude economy and solutions are as follows:
1. Main technological challenges
- Airspace management: The development of the low-altitude economy requires precise airspace resource management, but China still has shortcomings in this regard.
- Collaboration across the entire industry chain: The entire industry chain from technology to application has not yet effectively cooperated, which has limited the development of the low-altitude economy.
- Lack of top-level design: The lack of top-level design has led to the lack of systematic and planned development of the low-altitude economy.
- Commercialization challenge: The development of low-altitude economy business has gone through three stages of technological breakthroughs, airworthiness certification, and commercialization, of which commercialization is the most difficult.
2. Solutions
- Application of artificial intelligence: Using artificial intelligence technology, such as the “Artificial Intelligence + Low-altitude Economy” solution announced by Yunzhou Intelligence, to improve the intelligence level of the low-altitude economy.
- Establish a complete industrial system: For example, Shanghai proposes to establish a complete industrial system for the research and development, design, assembly, manufacturing, airworthiness testing, and commercial application of new low-altitude aircraft by 2027.
- Multi-dimensional application scenarios: Carefully create multi-dimensional and multi-field application scenarios, tailor low-altitude service solutions for different industries and fields according to actual needs, and achieve precise docking and efficient application.
- Collaborative innovation: The industry calls for collaborative innovation to solve the challenges faced by the low-altitude economy in airspace management and commercialization through multi-party cooperation.
IV. How to solve the bottleneck problems of funds and talents in the development of the low-altitude economy?
To solve the bottleneck problems of funds and talents in the development of the low-altitude economy, we can start from the following aspects:
1. Strengthen policy support and funding:
- Establish special funds: Many local governments have established special funds for the development of the low-altitude economy to support major projects and infrastructure construction in the low-altitude economy field.
- Establish industrial funds: For example, Nanjing has established an aerospace industry mother fund, covering different stages of projects in the low-altitude economy field.
- Financial support: Guangdong Province proposes to support major construction projects in the low-altitude economy industry, which are given priority to be included in the provincial key construction project plan and provide full-process services.
2. Introduce and cultivate high-end talents:
- Attract talents from universities and research institutions: Through school-enterprise cooperation, attract outstanding talents and technology transfer projects from universities and research institutions.
- Deepen the integration of industry and education: Encourage universities and vocational colleges to set up relevant majors, deepen the integration of industry and education, and accelerate the cultivation of high-level innovative talents and high-quality skilled talents.
- Scientific and humanized talent management system: Through a scientific and humanized talent management system, attract more outstanding talents, promote technological innovation, and industrial upgrading.
3. Promote industrial agglomeration and technological innovation:
- Support the development of new productive forces: Through policy guidance and support, promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading in the low-altitude economy field.
- Strengthen technological innovation: Support key core technology research, promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading.
4. Expand application scenarios and markets:
- Expand application scenarios: Through policy support, expand the application scenarios of the low-altitude economy, promote industrial agglomeration and technological innovation.
- Support the development of new productive forces: Through policy guidance and support, promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading in the low-altitude economy field.
V. How does national policy support the development of the low-altitude economy, and what specific measures and plans are there?
National policies support the development of the low-altitude economy through various measures and plans, including the following aspects:
1. Policy and regulatory support:
The central government and local governments have successively introduced a series of policies and laws and regulations to support the development of the low-altitude economy. For example, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has revised more than 30 civil aviation regulations to meet the needs of the low-altitude economy.
The promulgation of the “Regulations on the Management of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Flights” provides legal protection for the development of the drone industry and promotes the strong growth of the drone industry.
2. Cultivation of industrial ecology:
Local governments cultivate the industrial ecology of the low-altitude economy through supporting major project settlements and capital expansion. For example, the People’s Government of Zhuhai City has issued several measures to support the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy.
Hangzhou City has formulated the “Implementation Plan for Promoting the High-quality Development of the Low-altitude Economy in Hangzhou City (2024-2027)”, aiming to promote the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy.
3. Expansion of application scenarios:
The government encourages the expansion of low-altitude flight application scenarios, such as supporting the opening of low-altitude cargo flight routes.
Beijing has issued a three-year plan for the development of the low-altitude economy industry, aiming to break through the number of related enterprises to more than 5.000 within three years, while ensuring safety.
4. Technological innovation and standard policies:
The government lays out plans in technological innovation, standard policies, application needs, and security countermeasures to promote the development of the low-altitude economy.
5. Local policy support:
Provinces and cities have issued many policies to support the development of the low-altitude economy industry according to national planning. For example, 31 provinces and cities have issued many policies, focusing on developing new business models such as low-altitude tourism and regulating the low-altitude airspace management system.
The People’s Government of Hunan Province issued the “Several Policy Measures to Support the High-quality Development of the Low-altitude Economy in the Whole Province”, which increases subsidies for traditional aviation operations and support for new aircraft operations.
6. Overall goals and plans:
Local governments have formulated specific implementation plans and goals. For example, Hangzhou’s plan proposes that by 2027. the level of the low-altitude industry will be significantly improved, more than 600 upstream and downstream enterprises will be incubated, and the industry scale will exceed 60 billion yuan.